How did my 2009 predictions fare? I got a few things right…

The end of 2009 is only days away and, like many others, I thought I would reflect on well I ‘predicted’ events for the year.  Here are my 2009 predictions:

  • President Obama will have his first major crisis by July.
  • General Motors will be forced to file for bankruptcy while Chrysler will be put up for sale once again.
  • Sony will curtail it’s production of Blu-Ray players, including the PS3.
  • Microsoft will release Windows 7 by mid year.
  • Microsoft will announce the XBOX 360 replacement at E3.  It will ship the following year.
  • Apple will announce an iPhone replacement sometime in March or April.
  • HP will begin selling a multi-touch LCD monitor for under 250 dollars.
  • Network television will continue to suffer loss of viewers but will have better success online.  Sites like HULU and YouTube will showcase network programming and draw a sizable audience.
  • Steve Jobs will cut back his involvement at Apple.
  • The digital television switch over in February will be a mixed bag, with the south and north east exhibiting the most confusion and disruption.
  • The Star Trek and Harry Potter films will earn a billion dollars collectively and both will have record openings.
  • Nintendo will sell it’s 60 millionth Wii and the new DSi will be as hard to find as the Wii was in 2007.
  • The Detroit Lions will win a game.
  • Apple will get into the printer business. It is one of the few arena’s they do not yet play in.
  • The DOW will approach 10,000 again by the end of the year, but the economy will remain very weak, though not as bad as previously thought.
  • There will be a major shakeup in the PC market and one major manufacturer will be sold or shutdown.

Let’s see how I did…

1. President Obama will have his first major crisis by July:  Well, I think this is a hit, though I am not sure just how much.  President Obama pretty much inherited his first crisis, the banking saga as well as the demise of GM and Chrysler.  I’m scoring a hit here.

2. General Motors will be forced to file for bankruptcy while Chrysler will be put up for sale once again:  Another hit here.  Both GM and Chrysler filed for bankruptcy and Fiat purchased a portion of Chrysler.

3. Sony will curtail it’s production of Blu-Ray players, including the PS3:  This is a near miss.  Sony did, in fact, curtail PS3 production for the PS3 Slim.   Blu-Ray is doing fine.  Score a miss.

4. Microsoft will release Windows 7 by mid year:  Microsoft released the RC by mid year and the final shipping product in October.  I’m scoring a half hit.

5. Microsoft will announce the XBOX 360 replacement at E3.  It will ship the following year: Big miss.  Project Natal does not count.

6. Apple will announce an iPhone replacement sometime in March or April: Hit.  Apple announced the iPhone 3GS (though it happend in June at the WWDC, it was known in April.)

7. HP will begin selling a multi-touch LCD monitor for under 250 dollars:  I missed this by 49 dollars.

8. Network television will continue to suffer loss of viewers but will have better success online.  Sites like HULU and YouTube will showcase network programming and draw a sizable audience:  Another miss.  Network television viewing held its own in 2009, no sizable decline or increase in audience. Hulu remains a niche, though YouTube has a huge audience.  Still a miss.

9. Steve Jobs will cut back his involvement at Apple: This is a hit.  Jobs did, in fact, cut his involvement in the company, taking a leave of absence until around July.

10.Nintendo will sell it’s 60 millionth Wii and the new DSi will be as hard to find as the Wii was in 2007: This is a near hit as the Wii has, to date, sold 61 million units but the DSi is pretty easy to find.

11. The digital television switch over in February will be a mixed bag, with the south and north east exhibiting the most confusion and disruption: Not sure how to handle this one since the transition was delayed until June. Even so, while there were some problems and lots of people complaining, it actually went off pretty well.  Call it a miss, though.

12. The Star Trek and Harry Potter films will earn a billion dollars collectively and both will have record openings:  While both films were hugely successful, they did not hit a billion.  In fact, collectively, they only hit a half billion dollars (300+million for Potter, 200+million for Trek) though if you include worldwide ticket sales and DVD sales, they come close. Still a miss.

13. The Detroit Lions will win a game: a hit…they’ve won two games so far.

14. Apple will get into the printer business. It is one of the few arena’s they do not yet play in:  Miss, though, technically correct.  They do sell printers, just not any Apple branded printers.  Calling it a miss since I was thinking they would ‘revolutionize’ the printer business.

15. The DOW will approach 10,000 again by the end of the year, but the economy will remain very weak, though not as bad as previously thought: another hit.  The DOW did hit 10000 again and the economy is not nearly as bad as it was a year ago.

16. There will be a major shakeup in the PC market and one major manufacturer will be sold or shutdown: Miss.  No major shakeup took place.None of the majors shut down.

So, how did do?  Not so hot.  I hit five dead on and two half way.  The rest, big fat misses.  I guess I’m not Carnack, the magnificent.  I guess I won’t quit my day job.

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